WTO总干事：WTO多哈会议筹备会上的演讲(1)
I believe there is another reason， more fundamental， more profound and more immediate， why we need a successful meeting next month.
Director-General Mike Moore， in a speech on 9 October 2001 before the Foreign Affairs Commission of the French National Assembly in Paris， stressed that “the state of the world economy demands that we use the Ministerial Conference as an opportunity to boost global confidence”。
There are just 30 days until the 4th WTO Ministerial Conference takes place in Doha， Qatar. In terms of our preparatory process， this is where the rubber hits the road.
Ministers are resolute. They do not want a repeat of the failure of Seattle. Nor can we pretend this is a routine meeting where Ministers will simply discuss general economic trends. The context in which Ministers will meet ensures a decision will be taken， whether positive or negative， that will have long term implications for the WTO. Failure to get consensus on a forward work programme will lead many to question the value of the institution. It could condemn us to a period of hibernation.
I have made no secret of my conviction that a new trade round is necessary. The arguments are compelling and have been made cogently by many world leaders.
There is the development argument. 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 a day； another 1.6 billion people live on less than $2 a day. The first responsibility lies with Governments — development requires peace， good governance， sound economic policies， and investment in health care and education. But the international community can and must help. Poor countries need to grow their way out of poverty. Trade is a key engine for growth but currently developing country products face many obstacles entering rich country markets. By opening these markets， we can help lift millions of people out of poverty. And the most effective way to achieve these market openings is by launching a new round. Put another way， growth through trade can help us reach the UN Millennium Declaration targets of halving poverty， reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS， halving the number of people without access to safe drinking water， and ensuring children have access to primary education， by 2015.
In his call for a new round， which must be a development round， at the UN Conference for Least Developed Countries in Brussels earlier this year， the UN Secretary-General made a compelling case on behalf of the UN family. Mr. Annan reminded us that poor countries are caught in a vicious circle： they need foreign investment but can offer little to attract such investment. Mr. Annan reminded us too that in order to break out of the circle， poor countries need to export and need open markets in which their goods can compete. But those exports face formidable barriers， both tariffs and non-tariff barriers — hence the need for a new round. A new round will advance the gift of opportunity which is all that market access is. We should recall too the figures. By one study， developing countries would gain $155 billion a year from further trade liberalisation. That is more than three times the $43 billion they get annually in overseas aid.
There is the economic argument. If we cut by a third barriers to trade in agriculture， manufacturing and services， that will boost the world economy by $613 billion， according to one study from Michigan University. That is equivalent to adding an economy the size of Canada to the world economy. If we cut trade barriers completely， that will boost the world economy by nearly $1.9 trillion： the equivalent of adding two more Chinas to the world economy. To give another perspective to the economic argument； OECD agricultural subsidies in dollar terms are two thirds of Africa's total GDP. Think of the gains to the global economy if these subsidies were removed. Mr. Annan wants $10 billion to fight HIV/AIDS； that is just 12 days of subsidies in dollar terms. Nor can we ignore the fact that the world economy is looking decidedly vulnerable at present. There is no better way to address the problems of economic slowdown than by strengthening the multilateral trading system through new negotiations.
There is another argument， an historical one， for launching a round. Liberalization works. The multilateral trading system works. The last 50 years has seen unparalleled prosperity and growth and more has been done to address poverty in these last 50 years than in the previous 500. Since 1960， child death rates have halved in developing countries； malnutrition rates have declined by a third； access to safe water has improved dramatically. While the current UN Millennium Declaration targets show there is still a long way to go， and we need to keep in mind that the multilateral trading system is just one contributor to the progress that has been secured， we should not lose sight of the fact that the system has proved its worth repeatedly.
