求大神写个实验"三门问题"看下结果.
http://baike.baidu.com/view/68669.htm
public static class 成功机会选择概率问题
{
const int Size = 3; //wall数
const int Award = 1; //奖品数
/// <summary>
/// 进行一次测试。
/// </summary>
/// <returns>返回两个bool结果：1. 如果不改变选择，是否猜中；2. 如果改变选择，是否猜中。</returns>
private static Tuple<bool, bool> testc()
{
var gates = (from n in Enumerable.Range(0, Size)
orderby Rnd.Next()
select n < Award).ToList();
var guess = Rnd.Next(0, Size); //首先猜测选择这个
int open = (from n in Enumerable.Range(0, Size)
where n != guess && !gates[n]
select n).First(); //选择这个门打开
int newGuess = (from n in Enumerable.Range(0, Size)
where n != guess && n != open
orderby Rnd.Next()
select n).First();
return new Tuple<bool, bool>(gates[guess], gates[newGuess]);
}
static Random Rnd = new Random();
static void t1()
{
var cn = 10000; //进行1万次反复测试
var game = Enumerable.Range(0, cn).Select(x => testc()).ToList();
var result1 = game.Count(x => x.Item1); //不改变决定成功次数
var result2 = game.Count(x => x.Item2); //改变决定成功次数
Debug.Assert(result2 > result1 + 3000);
}
}
